CB
COMMERCE BANCSHARES INC /MO/ (CBSH)·Q2 2025 Earnings Summary
Executive Summary
- CBSH delivered a clean beat: diluted EPS of $1.14 vs S&P Global consensus $1.05*, and total revenue of $445.8M vs consensus $435.9M*, driven by record net interest income (NII), 14 bps sequential NIM expansion to 3.70%, and firm fee income mix (37% of revenue) .
- Profitability improved across the board: ROAA 1.95%, ROAE 17.40%, efficiency 54.8%; credit costs remained low with NCOs 0.22% and non‑accruals 0.11% of loans .
- Deposits were stable (avg +$63M q/q), cost of interest-bearing deposits fell 5 bps to 1.67% (total deposit cost 1.18%), and average loans grew 1.5% q/q; NII reached a new record at $280.1M .
- Strategic: Announced acquisition of FineMark; management expects ~6% 2026 GAAP EPS accretion, 1.6-yr TBVPS earnback, minimal CET1 impact; buybacks slowed to $10M in Q2 vs $55M in Q1 .
Note: Consensus values marked with * are from S&P Global.
What Went Well and What Went Wrong
What Went Well
- NIM expansion and record NII: Net yield on interest-earning assets rose to 3.70% (+14 bps q/q), and NII hit a record $280.1M (+4% q/q, +7% y/y) supported by asset repricing, higher loan demand, and lower funding costs .
- Fee-income resilience and diversification: Non-interest income rose to $165.6M (+4% q/q, +9% y/y), with trust fees +6% y/y and strong “Other” driven by $5.5M gains on sales of assets and tax credit sales income .
- Credit quality remained excellent: NCOs 0.22%, non-accruals 0.11%; ACL/loans at 0.94% with coverage to NALs at 8.8x; office CRE metrics solid (TTM office NCOs 0.00%, NPLs 0.00%) .
- Management tone: “Commerce delivered a strong financial performance… supported by loan growth, strong fee income, low credit costs and continued disciplined expense management” — CEO John Kemper .
What Went Wrong
- Expense growth: Non-interest expense rose 3% q/q and 5% y/y to $244.4M, including $1.9M acquisition-related costs and higher salaries/benefits; efficiency improved but opex is trending up y/y .
- Card fee softness vs prior year: Bank card transaction fees were down 2% y/y on corporate and credit card pressure (higher rewards expense), partially offset by q/q improvement .
- Securities gains/losses volatility: Net investment securities gains were modest at $0.4M, swinging from ($7.6M) in Q1; AFS portfolio AOCI remained a headwind despite q/q improvement (AOCI loss $(581)M vs $(635)M in Q1) .
Financial Results
Headline P&L and Profitability (oldest → newest)
Results vs S&P Global Consensus (Q2 2025)
Values marked with * are retrieved from S&P Global.
Non-Interest Income Breakdown ($M, oldest → newest)
Key Banking KPIs (oldest → newest)
Guidance Changes
Management did not issue formal numeric guidance for revenue, NIM, opex, or tax; qualitative outlook includes: ~$1.3B of AFS cash flows over next 12 months and four SOFR loan floors to protect NII; total deposit cost trending down .
Earnings Call Themes & Trends
Note: A Q2 2025 earnings call transcript was not available in our document set; the company provided an earnings release and an earnings highlights presentation .
Management Commentary
- “Commerce delivered a strong financial performance in the second quarter… supported by loan growth, strong fee income, low credit costs and continued disciplined expense management” — John Kemper, CEO .
- “Net interest income of $280 million was another record quarter… reflects the continued benefits of fixed-rate asset repricing, higher loan demand, and our strong deposit franchise. Non-interest income was $166 million and made up 37.2% of total revenue…” — John Kemper, CEO .
- On FineMark: “With this acquisition, FineMark will bring new capabilities… Commerce will add scale and depth with resources, capital, operational infrastructure, regulatory experience, and long-term stability” — John Kemper, CEO .
Q&A Highlights
- No Q2 2025 earnings call transcript was available in our document set. The company furnished an earnings highlights presentation and detailed press release; no additional Q&A disclosures beyond these materials were found .
Estimates Context
- EPS and revenue exceeded S&P Global consensus: $1.14 EPS vs $1.05*, and $445.8M revenue vs $435.9M*; # of estimates: EPS (6), revenue (3)* .
- Beats were driven by: record NII; sequential NIM expansion (+14 bps) from asset repricing and lower deposit costs; modest net securities gains ($0.4M) and a lower provision vs Q1; fee strength in trust and “Other” categories .
Values marked with * are retrieved from S&P Global.
Key Takeaways for Investors
- High-quality beat with positive operating leverage: NIM tailwinds and fee diversification supported EPS outperformance; watch for sustainability as rates evolve .
- Funding costs rolling over: total deposit cost down to 1.18%, interest-bearing 1.67%; layered SOFR loan floors mitigate downside to NII in a declining rate scenario .
- Credit benign and well-reserved: NCOs 0.22%, ACL 0.94% of loans, non-accruals 0.11%; office CRE portfolio shows conservative attributes and clean performance .
- Expense discipline vs M&A costs: opex up 3% q/q and 5% y/y with $1.9M acquisition-related professional fees; underlying efficiency trend remains solid (54.8%) .
- Capital and buybacks: strong capital ratios with BVPS +5% q/q; buybacks moderated to $10M in Q2 — expect flexibility around M&A and balance sheet priorities .
- FineMark is a 2026 EPS accretive catalyst (~6%) with manageable TBVPS impact (1.6-yr earnback) and minimal CET1 drag; integration risk appears contained per management .
- Near-term estimate revisions likely upward on NIM/NII and fee strength; model modestly higher 2H NII with stable credit costs and mid‑50s efficiency, offset by incremental M&A-related expenses .
Additional Materials Consulted
- Q2 2025 Form 8-K with Exhibit 99.1 (press release) and Exhibit 99.2 (Earnings Highlights) .
- Q1 2025 and Q4 2024 earnings press releases for trend analysis .
- Dividend declaration press release dated July 25, 2025 .